💥 The Biggest World Cup Upsets of All Time
The shocks that prove no result is ever guaranteed, and why the underdog wins more often than you think.
Part of what makes the World Cup the most gripping event in sport is that the favourites do not always win. A single match, ninety minutes long, leaves just enough room for the improbable: a goalkeeper who has the game of his life, a defence that holds on by its fingernails, a striker who scores the only chance that falls his way. Over the decades, the tournament has produced a string of results so shocking they changed the way the world thought about which nations could compete. Here are five of the greatest, and the lesson each one holds for anyone trying to predict football.
USA 1, England 0 (1950)
Group stage, Belo HorizonteEngland arrived at their first World Cup as one of the inventors of the game and overwhelming favourites, while the United States was a part-time squad of amateurs given almost no chance. The single goal, headed in by Haitian-born Joe Gaetjens, was so improbable that some newspapers back home assumed the score was a misprint and reported it as a 10-1 England win. It remains the textbook example of why football is played on grass and not on paper.
North Korea 1, Italy 0 (1966)
Group stage, MiddlesbroughTwo-time champions Italy were dumped out of the group stage by a North Korean side almost nobody in Europe had scouted. Pak Doo-ik's goal sent the Italians home to a famously frosty reception and turned the unfancied North Koreans into local heroes in the north of England. It was the first time an Asian team had truly shaken the established order at a World Cup.
Cameroon 1, Argentina 0 (1990)
Opening match, MilanReigning champions Argentina, with Diego Maradona at the peak of his fame, opened the 1990 tournament against Cameroon and lost. Cameroon played much of the match with ten men and finished with nine after two red cards, yet still found a way to win. The result announced African football as a genuine force and made Cameroon, and their 38-year-old striker Roger Milla, the story of the tournament.
Senegal 1, France 0 (2002)
Opening match, SeoulFrance entered 2002 as both World Cup and European champions and faced Senegal, a nation playing in its first ever World Cup, in the opening game. Senegal won, France went on to crash out without scoring a single goal, and the tournament had its defining upset before it had really begun. Many of the Senegalese players had grown up in the French league, which made the result sting even more.
Saudi Arabia 2, Argentina 1 (2022)
Group stage, LusailArgentina arrived in Qatar on a 36-match unbeaten run and were among the favourites, with Lionel Messi chasing the one trophy missing from his collection. Saudi Arabia, ranked far below them, came from a goal down to win 2-1 in one of the great World Cup shocks. The twist is that Argentina recovered, regrouped, and went on to win the entire tournament, proving that a single early upset does not have to define a campaign.
What the upsets teach predictors
There is a practical takeaway buried in all these shocks. Upsets are rare by definition, so predicting one in every match is a losing strategy. But they happen often enough that calling the obvious result every single time leaves points on the table, especially in a prediction game where everyone else is also picking the favourite. The skill is in spotting the spots where an upset is more likely than the odds suggest: an overconfident favourite in their opening match, a tired team in a dead-rubber group game, or a well-organised underdog with nothing to lose.
Notice too that Argentina lost their opener in 2022 and still won the whole thing. One result rarely decides a tournament, which is why a smart predictor stays calm after a shock instead of overcorrecting. We dig into exactly when to gamble on an upset and when to play it safe in our prediction tips guide.